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Youth Services Insider
Administration for Children's Services


In New York, A Pointed Debate over Predictive Analytics and Child Welfare

Crunching numbers to help predict human behavior is common practice in insurance, banking, and public policy. We are always looking for the perfect algorithm to help improve decision-making. But when those decisions involve the fate of families, and the potential removal of kids from their parents, data-driven predictions become the subject of intense debate.

Child Welfare
Youth Services Insider
Capitol View


Congress Weighs Pilot Program for Predictive Analytics Use in Child Welfare

A new bill introduced by Senator Todd Young (R-Ind.) last month would establish a pilot program to test the use of predictive analytics in identifying and protecting children who are at risk of maltreatment.

Child Welfare
Youth Services Insider


Can Predictive Analytics Root Out the Social Workers Most Likely to Break up Black Families?

The idea of using predictive analytics in child welfare easily conjures images of child abuse investigators targeting parents a machine deems most likely to harm their children.

Because black families are so disproportionately likely to be involved with the child protection system, critics credibly argue that predictive risk modeling will only exacerbate existing racial bias.

Predictive Analytics


Managing the Flow: Predictive Analytics in Child Welfare

At the intersection of two major Los Angeles freeways sits the county’s child abuse nerve center.

Scores of workers are scattered at partitioned desks on the incredibly large fifth floor of this tall, drab building.



Putting Lipstick on the Predictive Analytics Pig

Chronicle Senior Editor John Kelly argues that not only I, but also The New York Times, Forbes columnist John Carpenter, Republican strategist Mike Murphy and others are wrong to suggest that the presidential election revealed the emperor known as “predictive analytics” to be, at best, scantily clad if not stark naked.

Blogger Co-Op
Youth Services Insider


It’s How You Use Predictions that Matters

In his November 15 column, Chronicle Senior Editor John Kelly contested Richard Wexler’s argument that the failure of number crunchers to predict the results of the recent election casts doubt on the potential of the new predictive analytics tools to identify which children will be maltreated in the future.

Blogger Co-Op


Five Lessons for Implementing Predictive Analytics in Child Welfare

Predictive risk modeling (PRM) offers new and exciting chances to solve big, entrenched problems.

In child welfare, one of those problems is accurately identifying children at risk of maltreatment, work that requires a gauge of not only immediate risk, but also the future likelihood of harm.

Youth Services Insider


L.A.’s Vulnerable Kids Caught in the Middle as the “Elephants” of Analytics Fight

“When elephants fight,” the proverb goes, “the grass gets hurt.”

As Los Angeles deals with the aftermath of another child abuse tragedy, the death of Yonatan Aguilar, the debate over how to fix the system is devolving into a fight between two of the field’s “elephants.”

Blogger Co-Op


Big Data is Watching You: If Predictive Analytics Still Doesn’t Creep You Out, Watch This Ad

The debate over predictive analytics in child welfare will continue right after this important message:

So, what do we have here?  A bunch of data analysts, presumably working for a firm that sells sporting goods, are spying on a woman’s recreational habits.

Blogger Co-Op


Who Will Seize the Child Abuse Prediction Market?

Lisa Mayrose knew Florida’s Department of Children & Families needed to overhaul how it investigated phone calls reporting beaten and neglected children.

“We had a rash of child deaths,” Mayrose, the regional managing director of the department in Tampa, said in an interview with The Imprint.